Солнце, ветер и вода всего за 30 лет могут полностью избавить земной шар от нефтегазовой зависимости. Примерно столько времени и осталось у человека, чтобы найти альтернативу заканчивающимся углеводородам. «Цивилизации придет конец в этом столетии, если мы не найдем способ жить без ископаемого топлива», — утверждает Дэвид Гудштайн, американский физик и писатель. Одним из решений данной проблемы являетсяАЛЬТЕРНАТИВНАЯ ЭНЕРГЕТИКА.
АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНАЯ ЭНЕРГЕТИКА — совокупность перспективных способов получения энергии, которые распространены не так широко, как традиционные, однако представляют интерес из-за выгодности их использования при низком риске причинения вреда экологии района.
К направлениям АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНОЙ ЭНЕРГЕТИКИ относятся:
- биотопливо
- ветроэнергетика
- солнечная энергетика
- гелиоэнергетика
- альтернативная гидроэнергетика
- геотермальная энергетика
- водородная энергетика и сероводородная энергетика
- распределённое производство энергии
- космическая энергетика
Не все еще потеряно
Третий год подряд новогоднюю елку в японском аквариуме Иносима города Камакуры освещает рыба. Питомец аквариума, электрический угорь, служит источником электроэнергии для гирлянды на елке в холле. Большую часть тела угря занимают электрические органы, которые при каждом движении рыбы генерируют разряды — японцы решили запитать ими елку.
«Если бы мы собрали электрических угрей со всего мира, то смогли бы зажечь невообразимо огромную рождественскую елку», — говорит Казухико Минава, сотрудник аквариума. В Иносиме считают идею с угрем «оригинальной и экологичной» и в шутку предлагают использовать рыб и в быту.
Ирония в том, что к середине века традиционные источники энергии иссякнут и станут куда большей экзотикой, чем электрические угри. По оптимистичным оценкам, к этому времени в земных недрах закончится нефть. Спустя еще 30 лет истощатся газовые и урановые месторождения. Еще полвека человечество протянет на каменном угле. А потом — тушите свет.
«Цивилизации в ее нынешнем виде придет конец уже в этом столетии, если мы не найдем способ жить без ископаемого топлива», — утверждает профессор физики Дэвид Гудштайн, автор книги о кризисе нефтепотребления «Без топлива: конец эры нефти». В ней он доказывает, что забыть о нефти и газе и переходить на альтернативные источники энергии человечеству нужно уже сейчас.
То, что соскочить с нефтегазовой иглы возможно, уже доказано. Профессор Марк Джейкобсон из Стэнфордского университета, давно исследующий возможности АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНОЙ ЭНЕРГЕТИКИ уверяет, что полностью отказаться от черного и голубого золота, заменив их возобновляемыми источниками энергии, абсолютно реально.
«Технически добывать 100% электроэнергии любого назначения из возобновляемых источников можно уже к 2030 году», — утверждает Джейкобсон.
Опустела без угля Земля
По оценкам экспертов департамента энергетики США, из 12 трлн. ватт (ТВт), необходимых для удовлетворения нынешних энергетических потребностей планеты, примерно 37% обеспечивает нефть, 21% — уголь, 25 % — газ, 9 % — ядерное топливо.
И лишь оставшиеся 8% энергии производятся изАЛЬТЕРНАТИВНЫХ источников, включая биотопливо, ветер, солнечную и геотермальную энергию. Еще через 20 лет эта цифра вырастет до 17 ТВт. Чтобы произвести столько энергии, придется построить, например, 13 000 новых угольных шахт! Хотя и этого самого угля человечеству хватит только на полтора поколения.
Австралийские ученые Шахрияр Шейфи и Эркан Топала, чей отчет недавно опубликовал журнал Energy Policy, подсчитали: нефть на планете закончится через 30 лет, уголь — через 102, а газ — через 32.
«Это значит, что запасов угля хватит до 2112 года, а после 2042 года он будет единственным доступным видом ископаемого топлива», — утверждают ученые. И эти цифры отражают прогнозы большинства экспертов. По мнению многих из них, есть лишь один способ избежать коллапса — АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНЫЕ источники энергии.
«Дешевый и богатый источник энергии под рукой — он называется солнечный свет. В конце концов нам придется вернуться к источникам, которые использовали наши предки тысячи лет назад», — утрирует Гудштайн.
Есть альтернатива
Обеспечить всю планету энергией за счет одних лишь солнечных батарей не удастся. А вот полпланеты — вполне. Другую половину планеты обеспечить электричеством через несколько десятков лет сможет ветроэнергетика.
Подтверждающие это расчеты провели стэнфордский профессор Джейкобсон и его коллега Марк Делуччи из Калифорнийского университета в Дэвисе. Они просчитали, что ископаемые энергоносители более чем реально заменить ветром, солнцем и водой.
«Объемы энергии ветра и солнца, доступной в мире, превышают потребности человечества на порядок», — уверяет Делуччи.
Их хватит не только чтобы осветить планету и обеспечить потребности промышленности, но и перевести на АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНЫЕ ИСТОЧНИКИ энергии транспорт и отопление, сегодня полностью зависимые от нефти и газа. При этом человечество еще и сэкономит. Ведь если все отрасли экономики перевести на электричество, то даже в 2030-м планета будет тратить меньше энергии, чем сегодня, — 11,5 ТВт. По той простой причине, что электроэнергия утилизируется на 30% эффективнее того же бензина.
Если обычный автомобильный двигатель тратит на движение всего 15% энергии заливаемого в бак бензина, а остальное теряется в виде тепла, то электромобиль использует по назначению 80% ресурса.
И даже если прожорливость человеческой популяции недооценена, и к середине века ее аппетиты окажутся еще выше, на планете хватит ресурсов, чтобы генерировать более 600 ТВт альтернативной энергии — в 40 раз больше, чем способен потребить гомо сапиенс сегодня.
Деньги на ветер
Чтобы перевести земной шар на АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНЫЕ ИСТОЧНИКИ энергии, Джейкобсон и Делуччи предлагают заменить весь мировой автопарк машинами на электро- и водородных двигателях и на тот же водород перевести двигатели кораблей и самолетов.
Инфраструктура, которая позволит сделать электроэнергию единственным топливом, нужна действительно огромная: 3,8 млн. ветрогенераторов, 89 тыс. солнечных и 900 гидроэлектростанций. Для сравнения: в не самом удачном 2009 году с конвейеров мировых автозаводов сошло 53 млн. автомобилей.
«Мое мнение — технически добиться того, чтобы 100% мировой энергии к 2030 году добывалось из возобновляемых источников, можно», — говорит Джейкобсон.
Создание этой инфраструктуры обойдется в $ 100 трлн., а займет она 2% земной поверхности. Но, по мнению самого ученого, при всей реалистичности замысла осуществить его в такой срок не удастся: на пути у зеленого сценария стоят политические, социальные и экономические факторы. К тому же в нем самом есть технические сложности, для которых нужно искать решение.
Начать с малого
Например, запасы того же лития и платины, необходимых для производства аккумуляторов и топливных элементов, ограничены. А добрая половина лития еще и залегает в рискованных и нестабильных точках планеты — Боливии и Чили.
Кроме того, прежде чем браться за строительство светлого альтернативного будущего, логично воплотить в жизнь более осуществимые проекты энергоэкономии. Например, ликвидировать морально устаревшие лампы накаливания.
«Освещение — один из простейших способов сэкономить энергию, поскольку именно на него в мировом масштабе идет около 20% всей потребляемой электроэнергии», — говорит голландец Райнье Шлатман, возглавляющий офис Philips в Украине.
Переход на энергосберегающие и светодиодные лампы — полупроводники, излучающие свет при пропускании тока, — мгновенно отразится и на потребности в электричестве, и на выбросах CO2. Светодиоды потребляют на 80% меньше энергии и служат в до 20 раз дольше. По оценке Международного энергетического агентства, экономные лампы могут сберечь миру 106 млрд. евро или шестую часть электричества в год, а выбросы углекислого газа сократить на 55 млн. т. Еще в 2008-м доля старых ламп в мире достигала 93%, но лед уже тронулся. К 1 сентября будущего года Евросоюз обязался полностью отказаться от традиционных ламп накаливания.
Тем же путем идут США, Великобритания, Австралия, Канада, Новая Зеландия, Филиппины. Россия, по словам Шлатмана, планирует отказаться от них только к 2014 году.
Тем не менее, в масштабах всей планеты мгновенно этот процесс не произойдет. По данным внутреннего исследования Philips, через десять лет только 75% всех световых решений будут светодиодными.
Так что с поправкой на возможные преграды и человеческую инертность более реалистично рассчитывать, что к 2030 году хотя бы строящиеся новые объекты энергетики будут давать возобновляемую энергию.
«Заменить абсолютно всю энергию на чистую, вероятно, удастся лишь к 2050-му», — полагает профессор Джейкобсон.
Энергетические активы
Из необходимого для этого количества «экзотических» электростанций на сегодня построено ничтожно мало: менее чем по 1% солнечных электростанций, ветряных электростанций, геотермальных и приливных.
«Но даже легендарную программу Аполлон (высадка американцев на Луну) осуществили меньше чем за десять лет», — агитирует Джейкобсон.
Впрочем, мощности альтернативных заводов стремительно растут. Сегодня две крупнейшие в мире ветряные электростанции, техасские Roscoe Wind Farm и Horse Hollow Wind Energy Center, генерируют достаточно энергии, чтобы осветить и обогреть 1 млн. жилищ. Примерно столько же выдает крупнейший геотермальный комплекс Geysers под Сан-Франциско.
Китайцы достраивают ветряную электростанцию Gansu Wind Farm, которая способна выдать в шесть раз больше энергии. А мощнейший солнечный коллектор Solar Energy Generating Systems в калифорнийской пустыне Мохаве преобразует лучи в поток электричества, освещающего 232 тыс. зданий.
Пальму первенства пока удерживают ГЭС, которых на планете насчитывается 70% от необходимого для зеленого будущего минимума. Самая мощная из них, Three Gorges Dam в Китае, производит 18 200 МВт энергии. Для сравнения, мощность украинской Запорожской атомной, которая входит в десятку крупнейших в мире электростанций и удовлетворяет пятую часть потребности страны в электричестве, — 6000 МВт.
Минус атом плюс солнце
Кстати, из своих расчетов американцы намеренно исключили ядерную энергетику. Во-первых, запасы урана на земле ограничены. Во-вторых, риск получить за ширмой мирного атома бомбу слишком высок, особенно учитывая, что удовлетворить потребности планеты смогут лишь 15 000 новых АЭС. То есть в течение 43 лет ядерные станции должны расти как грибы после дождя — по одной в день. В этом свете одно из наиболее нуждающихся в новых источниках энергии государств — Украина.
«Ее энергоснабжение все еще зависит от атомных станций и импортного газа, цены на которые будут стремительно расти», — полагает Барбара Рудек, ответственная за отношения с госструктурами в компании Sharp, входящей в тройку крупнейших производителей солнечных батарей в мире.
По словам недавно проведшей рекогносцировку на местности Рудек, благодаря выгодной географии Украина легко догонит далеко зашедших по альтернативному пути Европу, Америку и Азию.
Рудек с ходу приводит самые разные примеры использования энергии солнца в мире: 122-метровый небоскреб CIS Service Tower в Манчестере, облицованный панелями солнечных батарей на 392 КВт электричества; монгольскую деревушку Нойон на 160 жителей, — школа, больница и телестанция которой питаются от солнечной электростанции на 100 КВт; японская фабрика LCD-мониторов самой Sharp в Камеяме, которую обеспечивают током 32 тыс. фотоэлементов на крышах.
«С ее высоким уровнем солнечной освещенности Украина вполне может точно так же обеспечить себя чистой, доступной ивозобновляемой энергией», — считает Рудек.
Ну что ж, будем надеяться, что благодаря миллионам солнечных батарей, ветрогенераторов и волновых турбин к 2030 году планета может полностью отказаться от нефти и перейти на возобновляемую энергию.
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